Re: When can I expect ice out-
That’s a good question! Nobody knows, hence the fun of ‘Ice Out’ contests as fundraisers for North Country fire departments and social organizations. It’s been a cold winter, and one with less snow than typical. Both those tend to predict later ice-free dates, but a lot depends on the weather between now and April and May. If I were making book I might say you would have 5% chance of not being stopped by lake ice if you launched April 15th this year, and you would have a 95% chance if you launched May 15th…
Generally speaking lake ice is thicker this winter than it has been in several years. Lake Champlain is frozen over, the first time it has iced over since 2007. As Spring arrives the Adirondack Paddlers Forum (http://www.adkforum.com/forumdisplay.php?f=62) is a good resource for local eyes-on reports about ice conditions.
Here are a few links of possible use or interest on the subject…
http://www.uvm.edu/giee/pubpdfs/Beier_2012_Climactic_Change.pdf (the long version)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120507164334.htm (the short version)